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MONDAY, JULY 14, 2008 Barron's Cover: Bottom's Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived Numbers suggest prices are close to bottoming. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index for April, released just last month, showed the biggest year-over-year price decline yet, of 15.3%. Buried in the numbers, however, and widely ignored in the media, was the news that home prices actually rose, albeit slightly, between March and April, in eight of the 20 markets covered by the index (Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Ore., and Seattle). This was in sharp contrast to the readings for March, which showed prices falling in 18 of the 20 surveyed markets. Also, the pace of monthly price declines is starting to slow in most of the markets with negative readings.
"Other than Larry Kudlow of CNBC, none of the journalists who interviewed me after the latest release seemed at all interested in any of the positive developments," says David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee. "They seemed focused on the bad year-over-year number."
Now sales activity seems to be picking up. According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, sales of single-family homes, condominiums, town houses and co-ops edged up 2% in May from April's levels. That might not sound like much of a jump, but May marks only the second month in the past 10 to have seen an increase. Much of the gain came from markets such as Sacramento, Las Vegas and California's San Fernando Valley and Monterey County, all regions where lenders were unloading large numbers of foreclosed properties.
An ebbing tide of new delinquencies strongly hints that the worst may soon be over for the housing market, at least in terms of burdensome supply.
It is important to remember, as well, that even after a steep drop in the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices, long-term buyers in the top 20 U.S. metro markets have seen their properties appreciate by 70% since 2000. Home prices often take five to 10 years to recover fully from severe declines such as this. But at least the available data suggest the scary dive in home prices soon will be over. online.barrons.com
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